Chiefs vs. Buccaneers odds, line, spread: NFL picks, 2021 Super Bowl predictions from simulation on 120-78 run

Andy Reid became the third-oldest head coach to win his first Super Bowl at 61 years, 320 days when the Kansas City Chiefs won the title last year. But he could slide down to fourth if his team is unable to repeat with a victory in the 2021 Super Bowl on Sunday. The 68-year-old Bruce Arians has the chance to become the oldest first-time championship-winning coach in history when his Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the Chiefs in Super Bowl 55. Kickoff is set for 6:30 p.m. ET.

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers

Arians already will be the oldest head coach to make his first Super Bowl appearance, earning the distinction when Tampa Bay (14-5) knocked off Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game. The Chiefs (16-2) will hope to keep him without a title win after posting a 38-24 victory over Buffalo for the AFC crown. Kansas City is a three-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Buccaneers odds from William Hill Sportsbook, while the over-under has dropped to 56. Before locking in any Buccaneers vs. Chiefs picks, see the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven model.

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Live

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning well over $800. The model also enters Championship Weekend in the 2021 NFL Playoffs on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Bucs in the Super Bowl 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are the latest NFL odds and trends for Bucs vs. Chiefs:

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers spread: Kansas City -3
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers over-under: 56 points
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers money line: Kansas City -165, Tampa Bay +145
KC: Covered twice in the last 10 games
TB: Buccaneers are 4-0 against the spread in their last four playoff games as underdogs

Why the Chiefs can cover
Facing a team with a quarterback who is seeking his seventh Super Bowl title in his 10th appearance may seem daunting, but Patrick Mahomes has proven to be unflappable. The 25-year-old already is about to complete just his third NFL season and already has been named league MVP, won a championship and claimed Super Bowl MVP honors. Mahomes had a strong regular season, throwing for 4,740 yards and 38 touchdowns to finish second and fourth, respectively.

Mahomes has one of the top wideouts in the NFL in Tyreek Hill at his disposal and could get back the services of receiver Sammy Watkins, who hasn’t played since Week 16 due to a calf injury. Mahomes has also formed a dangerous connection with tight end Travis Kelce, who has 21 catches for 227 yards and three touchdowns this postseason.

Why the Buccaneers can cover
While Tampa Bay’s Tom Brady is making his record 10th Super Bowl start, Patrick Mahomes knows exactly what it takes to be a champion. The 25-year-old earned MVP honors in Super Bowl 54 after throwing for 286 yards and two touchdowns while also running for a score in a 31-20 comeback win over San Francisco. In just three postseasons, Mahomes has gone 6-1 while amassing 2,054 passing yards with 17 TDs and only two interceptions.

Mahomes has done most of his damage in the 2021 NFL Playoffs through the air, relying primarily on two players. Tight end Travis Kelce has been targeted a team-high 25 times and has hauled in three of Mahomes’ four touchdowns.

\Wide receiver Tyreek Hill has yet to find the end zone this postseason but has caught 17 of the 21 balls thrown his way for 282 yards. He had 172 yards on nine receptions against the Bills.

How to make Chiefs vs. Buccaneers picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning under based on the latest 2021 Super Bowl odds, with the simulations showing the teams combining for 56 points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see which side to back here.

So who wins Buccaneers vs. Chiefs in Super Bowl 55? And which side of the spread is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Buccaneers vs. Chiefs spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 120-78 roll.

Ranking every Super Bowl QB matchup: Where Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes stands on all-time list
Ranking every Super Bowl QB matchup: Where Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes stands on all-time list

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